Predicting time to subsequent pregnancy

Rachel Gold, Frederick A. Connell, Patrick Heagerty, Peter Cummings, Stephen Bezruchka, Robert Davis, Mary Lawrence Cawthon

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objectives: Women in poverty may benefit from avoiding closely spaced pregnancies. This study sought to identify predictive factors that could identify women at risk for closely spaced pregnancies. Methods: We studied 20,028 women receiving welfare (cash assistance) from Washington State. Using Cox proportional hazards methods, we estimated the effects of individual- and community-level variables on time from an index birth until a subsequent pregnancy (between June 1992 and December 1999). Prediction models developed in a random half of our data were validated in the other half. Receiver operator characteristic plots appropriate for proportional hazards models were calculated to compare the sensitivity and specificity of each model. Results: At 5 ye ars of follow-up, the most predictive model contained just individual-level variables (age, education, race, marital status, number of prior pregnancies); the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.66 (.62-.69). The addition of community-level variables (percent in poverty, with a high school degree or higher, Black, Hispanic, in an urban area; female unemployment rate; income inequality) added little predictive ability. Differences were found between women with different individual- and community-level characteristics, but the results suggest that these factors are not strong predictors of pregnancy spacing. Conclusions: Individual- and community-level characteristics are associated with interpregnancy intervals; however, we found little evidence that the selected variables predicted pregnancy interval in a useful manner.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)219-228
Number of pages10
JournalMaternal and child health journal
Volume9
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2005

Fingerprint

Time-to-Pregnancy
Pregnancy
Poverty
Birth Intervals
Aptitude
Unemployment
Marital Status
Hispanic Americans
Proportional Hazards Models
Parturition
Education
Sensitivity and Specificity

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Epidemiology
  • Pediatrics, Perinatology, and Child Health
  • Obstetrics and Gynecology
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

Cite this

Gold, R., Connell, F. A., Heagerty, P., Cummings, P., Bezruchka, S., Davis, R., & Cawthon, M. L. (2005). Predicting time to subsequent pregnancy. Maternal and child health journal, 9(3), 219-228. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10995-005-0005-7

Predicting time to subsequent pregnancy. / Gold, Rachel; Connell, Frederick A.; Heagerty, Patrick; Cummings, Peter; Bezruchka, Stephen; Davis, Robert; Cawthon, Mary Lawrence.

In: Maternal and child health journal, Vol. 9, No. 3, 01.09.2005, p. 219-228.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Gold, R, Connell, FA, Heagerty, P, Cummings, P, Bezruchka, S, Davis, R & Cawthon, ML 2005, 'Predicting time to subsequent pregnancy', Maternal and child health journal, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 219-228. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10995-005-0005-7
Gold R, Connell FA, Heagerty P, Cummings P, Bezruchka S, Davis R et al. Predicting time to subsequent pregnancy. Maternal and child health journal. 2005 Sep 1;9(3):219-228. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10995-005-0005-7
Gold, Rachel ; Connell, Frederick A. ; Heagerty, Patrick ; Cummings, Peter ; Bezruchka, Stephen ; Davis, Robert ; Cawthon, Mary Lawrence. / Predicting time to subsequent pregnancy. In: Maternal and child health journal. 2005 ; Vol. 9, No. 3. pp. 219-228.
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