Predictive and epidemiologic modeling of the spatial risk of human onchocerciasis using biophysical factors

A case study of Ghana and Burundi

Alassane S. Barro, Tonny Oyana

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Although recent efforts taken have substantially contained human onchocerciasis in many African countries, published reports indicate a recrudescence of the disease. To understand this problem, biophysical factors that favor the establishment of human onchocerciasis in Ghana and Burundi-countries identified as threat locations of recrudescence for neighboring countries-were analyzed. Data pertaining to the prevalence of human onchocerciasis in both countries was obtained from published sources. Findings in this study suggest that there was a gradient in prevalence of onchocerciasis in geographic locations near the water streams. The predictive models suggest that rainfall, humidity, and elevation were statistically significant for Burundi data while in Ghana, only the effect of elevation was highly significant (p<. 0.0001). In 2010, the estimated at-risk population was 4,817,280 people (19.75% of the total population) and 522,773 people (6.23% of the total population) in Ghana and Burundi, respectively. Findings can help in the effective design of preventive control measures.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)273-285
Number of pages13
JournalSpatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Volume3
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2012

Fingerprint

Burundi
onchocerciasis
Onchocerciasis
Ghana
modeling
neighboring countries
predictive model
Recurrence
Geographic Locations
Humidity
threat
Population
Disease
water
humidity
rainfall
Water

All Science Journal Classification (ASJC) codes

  • Epidemiology
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis

Cite this

Predictive and epidemiologic modeling of the spatial risk of human onchocerciasis using biophysical factors : A case study of Ghana and Burundi. / Barro, Alassane S.; Oyana, Tonny.

In: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, Vol. 3, No. 4, 01.12.2012, p. 273-285.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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